Disabled, or just desperate? Rural Americans turn to disability as jobs dry up

Between 1996 and 2015, the number of working-age adults receiving federal disability payments increased dramatically across the country — but nowhere more so than in rural America.

The Washington Post has a good read on both the current jobs and rural blight of opioids.

BBC Radio 4 – Faking It: Trump and the Media

Time to take a step back from the precipice or increase the pressure?

In this BBC Radio 4 audio program, Alan Rusbridger, former Editor of The Guardian, talks to journalists and news consumers across America in dispatches from President Trump’s ‘running war’ with the US media Alan asks why the media has been cast as Trump’s ‘opposition party’, how they are responding to the dilemmas and opportunities the new administration brings and whether the President is right to claim that the ‘mainstream media’ has lost the trust of the American people.

Listen here: BBC Radio 4 – Faking It: Trump and the Media

Organizational chaos or Conspiracy?

[Updated: This post was updated at 11pm Central to include the link to Matt Macowiacks tweet as a great example.]It’s easy to fallback on the current debacle in the US administration as a massive conspiracy. Conspiracies work for people who are afraid, and lack experience, conspiracy theory assumes someone is in charge.

Organization chaos theory was a big thing at the end of the 1980’s, Tom Peters book “Thriving on Chaos: Handbook for a Management Revolution” blazed a path of revolution for the newly minted management consultants through the mid-1990’s. I’ve no idea what they teach in business schools these days, but it’s fallen out of favor. It would again be easy to ascribe the current administrations chaos to a few people with out of date ideas based on Peters chaos theory, especially since Peters ascribed a lot of the justification for chaos theory on a changing global economy and technology.

I’ve experienced organizational chaos. I worked on 12 corporate acquisition projects. Many went ahead, some didn’t make financial sense, and others just were not a good business fit. They included small and large, including a $2.4 billion dollar company with some 4,000 staff, to another with just 60 employees.

In many, especially startups, either before or during acquisition if it proceeded, the management and organization went into chaos meltdown. This could often be sensed by the lack of clarity from the top, either in CEO or in Management. They couldn’t quantify how they were going to achieve the goals and objectives they’d claimed, or the product or technology didn’t do what they claimed.

In the acquisition due diligence you could spot tell tale signs. They were spending too much time in meetings and staff briefings on handling things that had already happened. Insufficient resources were applied to actual problems, it seemed cheaper to deploy marketing to attempt to distract from the cause of the problem that admit the problem and put plans in place to fix it.

As I wrote in “How False Stories Spread And Why People Believe Them

Constantly making false or inaccurate claims, using false data, or more importantly watching something on cable news and then twisting it to fit your own agenda is a dangerous game.

What it appears is that rather than being a massive conspiracy in action, the administration is exhibiting all the classic symptoms of an organization in chaos. Not good chaos as described by Peters

An organization should go back to the core of their existence, review their vision and mission and work and adopt a more customer-responsive approach.

By being curious in doing business and dealing with problems creatively, they can survive in the chaos theory.

Instead in a purely chaotic way.

The President has fired or lost many key staff for the smooth running of any administration, let alone a new one. It’s not just the headline staff, it’s some of the key underlying staff, like Cory Louie, the White House’s now former chief cybersecurity officer.

Louie “was forced to resign,” according to an editor at The Atlantic, who was the first to report his exit, despite initially saying that he was a member of the Secret Service. The story was apparently corroborated by ZDNet, who spoke to unnamed sources on the matter. There are many other examples.

Losing key staff, combined to having a number of alpha male types in charge of entirely new departments, with ideas and a catalog of actions against the very departments they now head; combined with a leader who can articulate nothing more complex than grand but simple ideas, results in exactly what we see, chaos.

You can hope that Steve Bannon is really in charge on the conspiracy, but in reality, that probably isn’t happening. He is likely just another pillar of a collapsing system, wanting to do big things quickly and competing with other alpha males to get the attention they so desperately crave and causing chaos in their wake.

This tweet is a prime example. Mistakes were made, the amount of time spent covering up, debating, and otherwise obfuscating the mistake would be out of proportion to the initial mistake, it also sews distrust, and bolsters the conspiracy theorists.

Whatever you think of the current administration’s politics, policies and programs, so far they’ve done very little except sign a bunch of pandering political executive orders. The “muslim ban” was ineffective in implementation, and probably illegal. The worst thing about it was that it just picked on “easy” countries, least likely to fight back. The Wall, Healthcare reform and almost everything else is just hot air. None backed by actual legislation. By this time in the Obama and Bush administrations, they’d got both solid, published plans, or written, and in the case of Obama, actual approved legislation.

Let’s see what form the legislation takes and who it benefits before coming back to conspiracy theories.

The 3Minutementor, founded and run by former colleague and personal friend, Nigel Dessau, has a useful guide to why strategy fails. It’s a useful checklist to compare the administration’s actions.

Episode 130: Why do strategies fail? from The 3 Minute Mentor on Vimeo.

Finally, here are some useful references on organizational chaos and complexity.

  1. Applications and Limitations of Complexity Theory in Organization Theory and Strategy – David L. Levy, University of Massachusetts, Boston, Massachusetts 
  2. Chaos Theory and Organization – Raymond Thietart, École Supérieure des Sciences Economiques et Commerciales. Bernard_Forgues, EMLYON Business School

How False Stories Spread And Why People Believe Them

One of the most valuable lessons the administration will learn, is that they cannot control the media, or social media. Constantly making false or inaccurate claims, using false data, or more importantly watching something on cable news and then twisting it to fit your own agenda is a dangerous game.

The more accurate and transparent the administration is, the less conspiracy theory talk there will be, the less time it will take to manage the media, the more the administration can focus on what they really want to do. This is a hard lesson to learn, but essential.

Otherwise everything gets stuck in the mire. Too much time denying, too much time correcting, too much time covering up, too much time on internal meetings trying to decide what to do and how to handle it. All that causes stress, wastes time, and drives distrust between staff members as they don’t know who to believe.

Back in December 2016, Dave Davies on NPR Fresh Air, spoke at length to Craig Silverman, Media Editor of BuzzFeed News about fake news. If you didn’t hear it, it’s well worth a listen. It’s especially relevant based on my slow but inexorable move to delete my facebook account.

Time for a new deal?

Involuntary under-employment, the bitter price of austerity; Involuntary migration, the bitter fruit of concetrating decent jobs in small areas.

Neither globalization nor electricfied fences can fix this. It is delusional to believe that Britain or America can prosper sustainably when neighbouring nations are in a crisis.

Subtlety and leadership we cant expect from Trump and May. This is a great series of short video op-eds from BBC Newsnight.

Brexit and the economy

There are plenty of people who think the current state of the UK economy is a cause for celebration.  Lots of numbers up including employment.

This belies the uncertainty ahead,  and while the UK Pound continues to be at an effective 20% discount to the US Dollar,  resources,  people,  products and services in the UK are effectively cheap.

While this is likely to continue,  those celebrating it as a result inside the UK should think again. In so much as individuals and business in the UK can acquire all the raw materials they need for manufacturing and business in the UK,  it would be great. Sadly,  apart from personal service,  there are few to no products in the UK made entirely in the UK from UK Raw material.

Exceptions are of course energy, oil,  gas, wind,  solar.  Add to that nuclear power,  and outside of the labor,  technology requirements, the UK is expanding.  Add to this government endorsed push for increased fracking,  often overriding local wishes and you have one sector that is somewhat protected.

The rest economy though,  doesn’t look so good. Anything bought overseas,  finished goods,  imported food, and raw materials will increase in price overcome coming months and years until the cable(UKP/USD)  resets to something like the $1.50 mark.

FYI. Most futures contracts and supply contracts sources from overseas are priced in USD,  even if they don’t involve US companies or US resources.

So,  what do the currency experts say? The following is the XE Market Analysis for December 30th 2016.

Not so happy new year.

Sterling has been trading with a heavy tone in the final week of 2016 trading, making a two-month low versus the dollar, a seven-week nadir against the euro and a one-month low versus the yen. The pound has now more than reversed the gains seen from early November, when the BoE adopted a neutral policy bias, through to early/mid December. The pound remains over 17% down versus the dollar since the Brexit vote in late June, and by some 12% in the case against the euro. BoE MPC member McCafferty last week warned that rising inflation and slowing global growth would hit the supply side of the economy in 2017, and there is a general view that UK growth will be sub-optimal over the next year as Brexit-related uncertainties drag on. Cable support is at 1.2200, while initial resistance is at 1.2297-1.2300, which encompasses the year-end holiday-season highs, ahead of 1.2344-50. We anticipate a return to levels around 1.2100.