How False Stories Spread And Why People Believe Them

One of the most valuable lessons the administration will learn, is that they cannot control the media, or social media. Constantly making false or inaccurate claims, using false data, or more importantly watching something on cable news and then twisting it to fit your own agenda is a dangerous game.

The more accurate and transparent the administration is, the less conspiracy theory talk there will be, the less time it will take to manage the media, the more the administration can focus on what they really want to do. This is a hard lesson to learn, but essential.

Otherwise everything gets stuck in the mire. Too much time denying, too much time correcting, too much time covering up, too much time on internal meetings trying to decide what to do and how to handle it. All that causes stress, wastes time, and drives distrust between staff members as they don’t know who to believe.

Back in December 2016, Dave Davies on NPR Fresh Air, spoke at length to Craig Silverman, Media Editor of BuzzFeed News about fake news. If you didn’t hear it, it’s well worth a listen. It’s especially relevant based on my slow but inexorable move to delete my facebook account.

Time for a new deal?

Involuntary under-employment, the bitter price of austerity; Involuntary migration, the bitter fruit of concetrating decent jobs in small areas.

Neither globalization nor electricfied fences can fix this. It is delusional to believe that Britain or America can prosper sustainably when neighbouring nations are in a crisis.

Subtlety and leadership we cant expect from Trump and May. This is a great series of short video op-eds from BBC Newsnight.

Brexit and the economy

There are plenty of people who think the current state of the UK economy is a cause for celebration.  Lots of numbers up including employment.

This belies the uncertainty ahead,  and while the UK Pound continues to be at an effective 20% discount to the US Dollar,  resources,  people,  products and services in the UK are effectively cheap.

While this is likely to continue,  those celebrating it as a result inside the UK should think again. In so much as individuals and business in the UK can acquire all the raw materials they need for manufacturing and business in the UK,  it would be great. Sadly,  apart from personal service,  there are few to no products in the UK made entirely in the UK from UK Raw material.

Exceptions are of course energy, oil,  gas, wind,  solar.  Add to that nuclear power,  and outside of the labor,  technology requirements, the UK is expanding.  Add to this government endorsed push for increased fracking,  often overriding local wishes and you have one sector that is somewhat protected.

The rest economy though,  doesn’t look so good. Anything bought overseas,  finished goods,  imported food, and raw materials will increase in price overcome coming months and years until the cable(UKP/USD)  resets to something like the $1.50 mark.

FYI. Most futures contracts and supply contracts sources from overseas are priced in USD,  even if they don’t involve US companies or US resources.

So,  what do the currency experts say? The following is the XE Market Analysis for December 30th 2016.

Not so happy new year.

Sterling has been trading with a heavy tone in the final week of 2016 trading, making a two-month low versus the dollar, a seven-week nadir against the euro and a one-month low versus the yen. The pound has now more than reversed the gains seen from early November, when the BoE adopted a neutral policy bias, through to early/mid December. The pound remains over 17% down versus the dollar since the Brexit vote in late June, and by some 12% in the case against the euro. BoE MPC member McCafferty last week warned that rising inflation and slowing global growth would hit the supply side of the economy in 2017, and there is a general view that UK growth will be sub-optimal over the next year as Brexit-related uncertainties drag on. Cable support is at 1.2200, while initial resistance is at 1.2297-1.2300, which encompasses the year-end holiday-season highs, ahead of 1.2344-50. We anticipate a return to levels around 1.2100.

Politics and the art of deception

Yep, lots of people are rightfully outraged at the election of Donald Trump and what the future holds. They look at his tweets, at was he says, and are super excited that he is going to do all the things he said or tweeted.

Meanwhile, back in the UK there is a whole lot of hand wringing going on about #BREXIT and what it means. It started the morning after the vote was announced, when liar, braggart, and Trump confidant Nigel Farage admitted that the £350-million for the UK National Health Service that was one of the flagship reasons for leaving the EU, was a “mistake”, or a lie.

The whole point of politics to find a way to get things done? That often r
requires a twisted tongue so as not to upset a prevailing government, or official before they’ve agreed to do what you want. It’s what Clinton mean when she said  she often had both a ‘both a public and a private position’.

Often this comes back to bite the politicians, when what they want to do is bad, doesn’t happen or in some other way backfires. Anyone who thinks that you can be open and transparent with everyone all the time, simply has not been successful at any meaningful level. Tony Blair is a fine example of this, his legacy in tatters, all the positive work he did while in office forgotten, over the lies and deception that took the UK into the “War on Terror“.

Everyone now is overheating about what Trump might do based on what he said or tweeted. First of all most of that is simple distraction. It’s throwing crumbs to the dogs, while he actually gets on with what he wants. His deception and lies though will come back to bite him, but you can’t assume he’ll do, or more importantly, be able to do everything he has claimed. It’s what politicians do, they say what they need to get the chance to do what they want.

Did you never ever tell your kids a white lie, or something that wasn’t really true to get them to do something? Did you ever threaten them when you had no real intention of following through? If you can honestly answer this no you did not, I’ve got a country you can run post BREXIT.

Dystopian Future it is then

In his acceptance speech, President elect Trump said, among other things:

We are going to fix our inner cities and rebuild our highways, bridges, tunnels, airports, schools, hospitals. We’re going to rebuild our infrastructure, which will become, by the way, second to none. And we will put millions of our people to work as we rebuild it.

This from a man, who tweeted:

I’ve no idea what to expect now from the Trump Presidency, but it’s an amazing  coincidence that the original Blade Runner film was set in In Los Angeles in November 2019, just two years from now.

Hopefully Blade Runner isn’t a metaphor for a Trump Presidency; the weather and the blade runners, especially Gaff, do not foreshadow Trumps Immigration cops; and hopefully the Los Angeles in the film, nothing like the real LA in 2019; and the replicants not an extreme of the automation I wrote about yesterday.

blade-runner

What we don’t know is how Trump will do this. Just running up the deficit doesn’t seem likely given he’s from the GOP/Republican party. Taking much of what he’s said, closing tax loopholes, defunding Nato, closing overseas bases in place like Germany, Japan and more won’t likely save enough money. Your move President Trump.

The appearance of impropriety [Boulder Weekly]

It’s still hard to imagine the whole Donald Trump Presidential run is serious, but it is. At the same many other communities are fighting, or trying to fight the Oil & Gas Industry over fracking; at the same time  a record-tying 5.6 magnitude earthquake took place in Oklahoma early Saturday morning and state officials have ordered the shutdown of 37 disposal wells used for fracking. Meanwhile, in Colorado, voters were unable to get meaningful measures to protect Colorado from the results of fracking.

What do these three have in common? Little on the face of it! In the current Boulder Weekly, before the Oklahoma earthquake, Joel Dyer writing an OpEd, captures in one article I think the dissatisfaction people feel with the current political system, but have been unable to express.

wreckball_590_476[1]If you take time to read the piece, don’t read about Colorado, don’t read about the failed fracking measure, read about the about the political system where everyone is an insider; and because of the way big money works, there is little difference between the people, the parties are just labels.That’s the frustration that I think most people feel.

Our state government has a very real credibility problem and it doesn’t matter if it is the result of impropriety or simply the appearance of impropriety, because both are equally destructive when it comes to the political process.

whatever you think of Clintons campaign, or Clinton personally it does matter if you believe what’s said about her, what matters is the appearance of impropriety. The opposite seems to be true of Trump, no matter how much he lies, because he is not seen as an insider, they are prepared to cut him some slack.

It doesn’t matter if you are a Boulder fractivist, a gun-rights proponent from Grand Junction, a religious conservative in Colorado Springs, an environmentalist in Durango or a fifth-generation farmer from the San Luis Valley, as long as the oil and gas industry and its millionaire backers are deciding who gets elected in this state, you lose.

This is bigger than any one issue. This is about whether we are going to choose to restore our democracy or continue to be governed by a handful of the state’s wealthiest individuals and corporations. And it’s our choice not theirs. So follow the money before you check that box on your ballot. It may be the most important thing you’ll do this year.

 

Source: When it comes to the Secretary of State’s office, the appearance of impropriety is a big deal – Boulder Weekly

The Greatest Social Challenge of our Generation — Strong Towns

This is one of the best blogs of many on the Strong Towns blog. American suburbia is only viable with heavy government subsidy and planning — It would be unaffordable otherwise.

As we see the Growth Ponzi Scheme unwinding and the first decades of what journalist Alan Ehrenhalt has called The Great Inversion, Americans are experiencing a return to normal living conditions. In many ways, it’s a traumatic transition; who-moved-my-cheese on a continental economic scale.

Source: The Greatest Social Challenge of our Generation — Strong Towns